UK retail sales suffer biggest fall in a decade – business live


Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as retailers report that conditions are weaker than a year ago

The CBI found that grocers were the largest contributors to the fall in sales volumes.

That backs up the idea that Britons spent more on food and drink a year ago, as they picnicked in the sun or held World Cup parties.

Andy Bruce of Reuters isn’t convinced that this month’s slump in retail sales can be disregarded, just because June 2018 was so rosy.

Shock drop in UK retail sales last month, according to the CBI.
It says to take the reading with a pinch of salt, given it's an annual comparison that was flattered last year by hot weather and the men's World Cup.
But… I think only half a pinch of salt is warranted. Why?

You might expect to see regular pattern of weak June retail sales in every year following a World Cup, but you don't really.
Plus, yet to see convincing analysis that weather really correlates with retail sales (IIRC there's a @becksv8 or @ajgoodwin1 analysis along these lines)

Doesn't stop journalists like me or the ONS talking about weather and retail sales though!

Having said all that… as @BillReuters reminded me, England did very well, so I suppose that really is a big difference!

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